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  1. Oysters are described as estuarine ecosystem engineers because their reef structures provide habitat for a variety of flora and fauna, alter hydrodynamics, and affect sediment composition. To what spatial extent oyster reefs influence surrounding infauna and sediment composition remains uncertain. We sampled sediment and infauna across 8 intertidal mudflats at distances up to 100 m from oyster reefs within coastal bays of Virginia, USA, to determine if distance from reefs and physical site characteristics (reef elevation, local hydrodynamics, and oyster cover) explain the spatial distributions of infauna and sediment. Total infauna density increased with distance away from reefs; however, the opposite was observed for predatory crustaceans (primarily crabs). Our results indicate a halo surrounding the reefs of approximately 40 m (using an increase in ~25% of observance as the halo criterion). At 90 m from reefs, bivalves and gastropods were 70% more likely to be found (probability of observance), while there was an approximate 4-fold decrease for large crustaceans compared to locations adjacent to reefs. Increases in percent oyster reef cover and/or mean reef area did not statistically alter infauna densities but showed a statistical correlation with smaller sediment grain size, increased organic matter, and reduced flow rates. Weaker flow conditions within the surrounding mudflats were also associated with smaller grain sizes and higher organic matter content, suggesting multiple drivers on the spatial distribution of sediment composition. This study emphasizes the complexity of bio-physical couplings and the considerable spatial extent over which oyster reefs engineer intertidal communities. 
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  2. Habitat suitability models have been used for decades to develop spatially explicit predictions of landscape capacity to support populations of target species. As high-resolution remote sensing data are increasingly included in habitat suitability models that inform spatial conservation and restoration decisions, it is essential to validate model predictions with independent, quantitative data collected over sustained time frames. Here, we used data collected from 12 reefs over a 14 yr sampling period to validate a recently developed physical habitat suitability model for intertidal oyster reefs in coastal Virginia, USA. The model used intertidal elevation, water residence time, and fetch to predict the likelihood of suitable conditions for eastern oysters Crassostrea virginica across a coastal landscape, and remotely sensed elevation was the most restrictive parameter in the model. Model validation revealed that adult oyster biomass was on average 1.5 times greater on oyster reefs located in predicted ‘suitable’ habitat relative to reefs located in predicted ‘less suitable’ habitat over the 14 yr sampling period. By validating this model with long-term population data, we highlight the importance of elevation as a driver of sustained intertidal oyster success. These findings extend the validation of habitat suitability models by quantitatively supporting the inclusion of remotely sensed data in habitat suitability models for intertidal species. Our results suggest that future oyster restoration and aquaculture projects could enhance oyster biomass by using habitat suitability models to select optimal site locations. 
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  3. null (Ed.)
    Ecosystems across the United States are changing in complex and surprising ways. Ongoing demand for critical ecosystem services requires an understanding of the populations and communities in these ecosystems in the future. This paper represents a synthesis effort of the U.S. National Science Foundation-funded Long-Term Ecological Research (LTER) network addressing the core research area of “populations and communities.” The objective of this effort was to show the importance of long-term data collection and experiments for addressing the hardest questions in scientific ecology that have significant implications for environmental policy and management. Each LTER site developed at least one compelling case study about what their site could look like in 50–100 yr as human and environmental drivers influencing specific ecosystems change. As the case studies were prepared, five themes emerged, and the studies were grouped into papers in this LTER Futures Special Feature addressing state change, connectivity, resilience, time lags, and cascading effects. This paper addresses the “connectivity” theme and has examples from the Phoenix (urban), Niwot Ridge (alpine tundra), McMurdo Dry Valleys (polar desert), Plum Island (coastal), Santa Barbara Coastal (coastal), and Jornada (arid grassland and shrubland) sites. Connectivity has multiple dimensions, ranging from multi-scalar interactions in space to complex interactions over time that govern the transport of materials and the distribution and movement of organisms. The case studies presented here range widely, showing how land-use legacies interact with climate to alter the structure and function of arid ecosystems and flows of resources and organisms in Antarctic polar desert, alpine, urban, and coastal marine ecosystems. Long-term ecological research demonstrates that connectivity can, in some circumstances, sustain valuable ecosystem functions, such as the persistence of foundation species and their associated biodiversity or, it can be an agent of state change, as when it increases wind and water erosion. Increased connectivity due to warming can also lead to species range expansions or contractions and the introduction of undesirable species. Continued long-term studies are essential for addressing the complexities of connectivity. The diversity of ecosystems within the LTER network is a strong platform for these studies. 
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